NIGERIA’S STATES AND THE CRISIS OF VISIONLESS GOVERNANCE: WHY NO STATE IS THINKING LIKE A COUNTRY
Denmark, with a population of just about six million people, maintains a tax-to-GDP ratio of approximately 48%. In sharp contrast, no state in Nigeria generates even 1% of its GDP from taxes. Some states, particularly in Northern Nigeria, record as low as 0.001%. This grim reality reveals an uncomfortable truth—most governments in Nigeria are simply not working.
Almost every state in Nigeria is more populous than Denmark, yet the Scandinavian nation generated about $200 billion in revenue in 2024. The highest income-generating state in Nigeria, Lagos—more than four times as populous as Denmark—generated only about $1 billion in the same period. The case of Kano is even worse; despite having a population similar to Lagos and about four times Denmark’s, it generated less than $50 million in 2024.
Some may argue that Denmark’s wealth is the result of decades of long-term planning, and that would be correct. However, across Nigeria’s 36 states, hardly any is planning beyond tomorrow—perhaps with the exception of Lagos. Beyond the unnecessary airports and vanity flyovers, Nigerian governors have failed to build structural, institutional, and behavioral reforms that guarantee future prosperity.
If President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his economic team fail to prudently manage the nation’s resources within the next six months, as things stand, 35 out of 36 states could face near collapse. The problem isn’t a lack of resources but the absence of creativity and productive governance. Despite enjoying fiscal independence, most states have limited themselves to merely sharing and managing FAAC allocations, rather than creating wealth for their citizens.
No governor in Nigeria today can clearly state the policy direction of their state. Yet, no people can develop without one. This lack of vision is why many Nigerians remain ignorant of policy matters and often fail to grasp where President Tinubu is taking the country. Instead of building economies that compete, state governments are locked in a senseless race to build more flyovers than their neighbours.
Rather than harnessing the brilliance of their young people to drive technology and innovation, many states choose to roll out red carpets for celebrities who gain fame through immoral entertainment shows. Apart from President Tinubu’s Lekki Free Trade Zone, no other state in Nigeria has a truly successful industrial hub. None has developed a roadmap linking their industrial growth to global value chains.
It is possible for all political parties in a state to come together and design an industrial and economic blueprint that no incoming government would abandon. This model, seen in advanced democracies, ensures continuity and prosperity. But in Nigeria, leaders prefer to destroy whatever their predecessors built—choosing political rivalry over partnership in progress.
Ironically, these leaders speak the same language and worship the same God, yet allow politics to divide them and keep their people in poverty. When the national GDP declines, citizens mock the president instead of holding their state governments accountable. They forget that the stronger and more prosperous the states become, the greater Nigeria’s GDP will grow.
Most state civil services are filled with political loyalists instead of competent professionals, breeding mediocrity, corruption, and inefficiency. Until merit replaces connection, and planning replaces politics, the states will continue to stagnate.
If Nigerian states begin to think like independent countries—with vision, innovation, and competitive economic planning—then in just ten years, Nigeria could stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the most developed nations on earth.
